Socio-Economic Determinants of Fertility Behavior: A Co-Integration Analysis for Pakistan

Abstract

This study examines the socio-economic determinants influencing fertility behavior in Pakistan, employing the bound test approach and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on time-series data spanning from 1990 to 2020. Variables were integrated into different orders using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. Fertility is considered the dependent variable, while GDP per capita, life expectancy at birth, child mortality ratio, female education, female participation rate in the labor force, and urbanization serve as independent variables. The findings reveal that factors such as female education, female labor force participation, and urbanization contribute to a decrease in the fertility rate. Conversely, GDP per capita, life expectancy at birth, and child mortality ratio are associated with an increase in the fertility rate. Policy recommendations emphasize investments in education and the creation of supportive urban environments for family life. Integrated approaches addressing healthcare, family planning, and gender equality are crucial for sustainable demographic trends and economic development. The study uniquely investigates how socio-economic determinants impact fertility behavior in Pakistan, focusing on the relationship between fertility rate and female education. Notably, this research adds innovation by being the first to explore the effects of socioeconomic determinants on fertility behavior in Pakistan, distinct from existing studies that primarily examine social and cultural determinants.